The picture in early September is the mirror opposite of last month. In August, completed transaction numbers looked strong while forward-looking measures declined. This month the reverse is true. Pending listings, listings under contract, and the contract ratio have all moved back above where they stood a year ago, while closed listings and monthly dollar volume have fallen below last year’s level. Buyers appear to be stirring a little earlier than usual, but that has yet to show up in completed sales.
One small caution on the annual comparisons. The Sedona and Verde Valley board joined ARMLS during 2025, with their listings migrating across between August and November of that year. Any comparison spanning that migration is partly measuring the addition of a new area rather than genuine change in the existing market. The effect is marginal, because the area accounts for a little under 2% of ARMLS closings, but it currently flatters the annual change by around half a percentage point on active listings and closer to a full point on closed sales. This effect is shrinking rather than growing, since the prior year figures now contain most of the migration, and it was slightly larger in the comparisons we published earlier in the summer.
Supply continues to ease. Active listings excluding UCB and CCBS fell 1.6% over the month to 23,674. The table shows them 0.5% above a year ago, but that rise is entirely accounted for by the Sedona and Verde Valley listings noted above; on a like-for-like basis, supply is effectively unchanged. Including UCB and CCBS, the total is down 1.3% for the month and slightly below last year after the same adjustment. Days of inventory edged down again to 126.0, from 127.1 a month ago and 133.4 this time last year. The listing success rate recovered from July’s low of 59.6% to 64.7%, so fewer sellers gave up in August, though it remains slightly below last year’s 65.4%.
Demand measured by completed sales was weak. Closed listings fell 13.0% from July to August, but August had 21 working days against July’s 22. Adjusting for that, closings per working day were down about 9%. The comparison with August 2025 needs no working day adjustment, since both months had 21, and closings were down 5.6% on that basis. Excluding the Sedona and Verde Valley listings discussed above, the underlying decline was nearer 6.6%. That is a clear change from the increases recorded in each of the previous two months, and monthly dollar volume was down 1.4% against last August.
Pricing has softened further. The average price per square foot fell 1.9% to $291.53, though it remains 3.8% above August 2025. The median sales price slipped 1.4% for the month to $445,500, and its annual gain has narrowed to 0.7% from 2.3% a month ago. Sellers achieved 97.24% of list price, essentially unchanged from last month and last year. This follows the path we anticipated last month, and we expect prices to stay soft through the rest of September and into October. The recovery in pending and under-contract counts is the more encouraging signal, and if it holds, we expect closed sales to steady from November onward as the luxury segment contributes more to the mix.
August 2026 -
What Homebuyers Get for Their Budget in 2026
Sellers: What to Watch this Summer
For Buyers
The topic of affordability is hot right now, especially when it comes to first time buyers. However, often the only measure quoted in articles is the median or average sales price without identifying what that looks like. In 2026 to date, the median size single family home sold in Greater Phoenix is 2,001 square feet, with a median sales price of $450,000. This is larger than what many first-time homebuyers need or want with their first home. With that in mind, below are the median sizes of homes purchased within different budget tiers this year:
Growth areas like Pinal County, Buckeye, and Surprise offer larger new homes for a buyer’s budget with attractive incentives that cover closing costs and even buy down the mortgage rate. Fewer homes come on the market during the summer, so sellers are under less pressure to reduce their prices. However, the spring season is over and fewer showings means buyers have an easier time landing homes in the sub-$400K price ranges, which have been very hot this year throughout the West and Southeast Valleys. Closings over the past 3 months between $300-400K show 70% of sellers paid the buyers’ closing costs at a median of $10,485, which typically includes some form of mortgage rate buydown to compensate for the increase in rates.
For Sellers
It’s the summer slog for sellers right now. Homes sit longer, fewer new listings enter the MLS, and supply becomes stale. Lack of activity can leave sellers restless and frustrated. Keeping up with the following reports can provide valuable information to help them decide whether to be patient or make a change. While broad Greater Phoenix measures provide some insight, the most useful will be specific to zip code and price point. Here are just a few basic reports available through the Arizona Regional MLS and The Cromford Report that could be helpful:
· Aligned showing reports - Lets sellers know how many showings were conducted in their price range and zip code within any given time frame such as the last week, month, or since they’ve been listed.
· New contracts accepted weekly - Counts how many contracts were accepted in their zip code and price range on a weekly basis. Sometimes no contracts are received for weeks within a certain price range, in which case patience may be the key. Sometimes there may be 3-5 per week; finding out why those properties were picked over all others could reveal what’s in the buyers’ minds. For instance, perhaps the buyers are choosing homes that are larger, have more amenities, or are remodeled.
· Supply counts weekly - Counts how many listings are in their zip code and price point competing for the number of contracts written every week. If supply is rising and weekly contracts are not, it’s time to consult with the listing agent and discuss strategy. If contracts are rising and supply is dropping, then patience may be appropriate.
· Average list price per square foot AT CONTRACT - Identifies a “sweet spot” where listings were priced at the moment a contract was received and accepted. Properties well above this measure need to also be well above average in condition, amenities, and location. For example, a home may be smaller but on a extra large lot or include a separate guest house, which would justify the higher price per square foot.
While these reports can be helpful during the summer lull, they are just a glimpse of what professionals do and track behind the scenes to make recommendations and sell homes. By late September, new listings will start to increase. Staying on top of what the buyers are saying and doing today will help drive strategy and pricing to win a contract. The goal is for your listing to be a comp, not a competitor, by the end of summer.
Troy Holland
Cell: 480-773-5792
Email: Troy@HomezAndLoanz.com
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Information provided courtesy The Cromford Report.
