Jan 19 - Since the beginning of this year we have seen an increase of 2,324 in the active listing count (excluding those with a contract). This a 11.9% rise, which is much higher than the 8.1% increase we saw this time last year, and it is added to a base of 19,460 rather than 14,593. So it is safe to conclude that supply is both higher and growing more quickly than a year ago.
Listings under contract have also shown some growth - up 13.3% from 5,387 to 6,103. This time last year they grew 23.8% over the same period. We have gained only 716 listings under contract instead of 1,257 last year and the growth percentage is down 44%.
We are therefore seeing demand grow, as is normal for the season but at a significantly slower rate than in January 2024.
So if supply is growing faster than a year ago, but demand is growing more slowly, the comparison with 2024 looks discouraging for sellers. Many readings confirm this picture.
- The contract ratio is stuck below 30 and currently reads 28. Last year it was 41 and was on a strong upward trend.
- The percentage of final list achieved by closed listings is currently standing at 97.15%, down from 97.40% a year ago.
- We have 123 days of inventory versus 92 this time last year and the trend is upwards.
- The listing success rate is 64.3% versus 69.7% last year.
This situation will result in more difficulty for sellers in resisting negotiation demands from potential buyers. New competition from other sellers is appearing quickly and asking prices will need to be set to be competitive and attractive rather than complacent. A price which is initially set higher than the market can bear will result in a long marketing period and eventually deeper price cuts than if the price had been set properly in the first place. This is particularly true at the low and mid-range price points. Those with high-end luxury properties for sale may be more lucky, but their marketing cycles are always far longer anyway.
